Saturday, January 2, 2010

2010 Market/Economy Predictions


S&P500Gold
Oil
USDEUR
USDJPY
TNX
TYX
Case-Shiller SF MSA Case-Shiller 20-composite Unemployment (U-6)
Starting value
1115
1098
80
0.6979
93
3.84
4.64135.81
146.58
17.2%
My prediction800900500.8904 5-15%-15%19%
Actual Value12571421910.7581.793.34.36+2% (138.84) -0.8% (145.32)17%
Note: the Case-Shiller numbers reported in December are for October, and the unemployment numbers reported in December are for November.


UPDATE as of 1/3/2011: filled in the actual values in the table above.  Too pessimistic across the board as a result of my belief that the USG and Fed could not fight the deflationary forces prevailing in the private sector.  They were able to do so in 2010 on the back of skyrocketing federal debt.